Market Predictions Part 1: Initial Impact on the Market

It may all seem a bit ‘doom and gloom’ at the moment with the inevitable impact COVID19 is going to have on the property market and property investors BUT there are some positives to balance out the negativity...

These are a few of the key points we have picked up on over the last few weeks:

- Low Bank of England base rate helping to keep mortgage interest rates low

- Banks are still lending! 

- Lower chance of repossessions: lower overall LTV's due to regulations brought in after the financial crisis, means I predict less repossessions in this downturn - the government are also leaning on the large players to 'repay' the social debt they owe due to the Government bailouts provided

- The Government is giving more support to people and the economy more than ever: this helps to keep a more positive sentiment and sense of security.  This will also help the #economy recover more quickly and consumers can get back to their normal habits and start to buy and invest again. There is so much money being 'thrown' at the problem right now that there is a lot of liquidity to support the economy which just hasn't been the case in previous recessions.

For us, the biggest concern as we move towards the end of 2020 and the Government's generous furlough scheme comes to an end, is what will happen to unemployment. Indeed even before the furlough scheme has ended employers (particularly in the travel industry) are making large job losses.

So what will be the impact on the housing market as #unemployment grows? It will probably mean less people will be purchasing #property, and also a higher chance of repossessions. So this could mean reduced demand, and increased supply, which would have a downward pressure on house prices. Just how badly the downward pressure will be remains to be seen.

Overall the Government stimulus is artificially propping up the market, which will mean there will be quite a big lag before the full impact is truly felt in property when that stimulus pulls back.

Keep your wits about you and keep analysing!

In the mood for more strategic thinking?

There's plenty more where that came from...

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